Renminbi revaluation

Published: May 8 2008 09:37 | Last updated: May 8 2008 20:00
 

Is China’s once-resurgent currency running out of steam? Expectations of appreciation, according to the futures market, have tapered off in recent days. Signals from Beijing also point to waning appetite for currency strength. The renminbi has risen 4 per cent against the dollar so far this year, reflecting China’s swollen trade surplus and speculative inflows. But as inflows surge, Beijing is once again clamping down. Authorities have an array of administrative measures at their disposal. Debate on the direction of the renminbi is being aired in public in an attempt to quash the popular belief that buying the Chinese currency is a one-way bet. Also, converting Hong Kong dollars into renminbi deposits became more expensive this week following a hike in transaction charges. That comes after the amount of renminbi deposits in the territory’s banks almost doubled over the first quarter to an (admittedly still modest) US$8bn or so.

The latter ploy is ineffective: the extra charge is accommodated by the superior interest rates available on renminbi versus Hong Kong dollars. But it acts as a warning shot, suggesting more measures may follow. The next target could be companies. Bank foreign exchange lending numbers suggest corporate borrowers may also have been conducting currency speculation. The amount of new US dollar loans and deposits roughly balanced in the first quarter of 2007. In the same period this year loans shot up and deposits fell.

Beijing’s resistance to a stronger renminbi is likely to stiffen if China’s economy slows. Export growth in the first quarter decelerated to 21 per cent year-on-year, from 2007’s 27 per cent, and economists expect the April data to slow further. Exporters, such as textile manufacturers, have seen their thin margins wiped out by renminbi appreciation and the grumbling is growing louder. The odds of further rapid appreciation are shortening.

 

Raise the renminbi

Published: February 19 2008 18:49 | Last updated: February 19 2008 18:49
 

China’s economic policy has been stable for a decade. With the pegged renminbi exchange rate at its heart, China has pursued growth based on exports and the investment to support them. But with the downturn in the US economy, cuts in Federal Reserve interest rates, and falls in the dollar, the need to rebalance is more urgent than ever before.

Lower US rates causes pressure through two channels: losses to the People’s Bank of China, and the monetary stimulus they give to an economy where inflation is already a problem. Rises in core consumer prices may be moderate, but with food sending headline inflation up by 7.1 per cent in the year to January, the central bank still needs to keep the brakes on demand.

Because of China’s huge current account surplus, the PBoC has to sell renminbi and buy dollar assets to maintain the currency peg. It then mops up the renminbi by selling local currency bonds. But because it now earns less interest on its dollar bonds, and because the renminbi has been allowed to go up somewhat faster against the US currency in recent weeks, the PBoC is now losing billions of dollars a month on its new and accumulated reserves. That is an uncomfortable position for a central bank to be in.

While the renminbi may have appreciated somewhat faster, its rise has been against a dollar that was falling against other currencies, such as the euro and the yen. The weak US economy has slowed China’s exports somewhat but has not been a heavy drag on demand.

The PBoC needs to tighten monetary policy to keep a lid on inflation but its options are limited. It can raise reserve requirements for banks, but there is a limit to how far it can do so without undermining their profitability. It can raise interest rates, but that would make the dollar reserve problem even more acute. China’s best bet is to allow still faster appreciation of the renminbi, against a basket of currencies, and not just the dollar.

There is a danger that faster appreciation will attract speculators: if a currency is expected to rise, it makes sense to buy now. But China’s capital controls, and its past success in containing hot money flows, suggest it can keep control of the process. The alternative – a large, one-off revaluation – is unattractive given the disruption it would cause to an economy so heavily dependent on exports.

It has long been clear that the renminbi peg was storing up trouble and China needed to start rebalancing away from exports. Now it has a spur to do so. China needs to take this chance and let the renminbi’s rise accelerate.

 

China's exchange rate management keeps economists guessing

By Geoff Dyer in Beijing

Published: June 25 2008 03:00 | Last updated: June 25 2008 03:00

While many Asian governments say they want to use higher exchange rates to limit inflation, some economists think China may have cooled on the idea.

In November, when inflation in China was accelerating, the authorities began to increase the pace at which the renminbi was appreciating against the US dollar, so that the currency was strengthening at an annualised rate of nearly 20 per cent in the first quarter.

Since mid-April, however, the pattern has changed, with a period when there was virtually no change in the exchange rate followed by renewed but slower appreciation. At last week's China-US summit in Annapolis, Chinese officials complained about the sharp decline in the value of the US dollar, prompting further talk of a change in strategy in Beijing.

Many observers have pointed out that the slowdown in renminbi appreciation coincided with sharp criticism within China about the difficulties faced by some exporters because of the stronger currency, a new labour law and tougher environmental regulations.

"There have been increasing voices raised throughout the government warning against rapid appreciation and sometimes even urging depreciation," says Barry Naughton, professor of Chinese economics at the University of California in San Diego, although he notes that these higher costs have not prevented exports from growing strongly.

Management of the exchange rate has also been complicated by a huge surge in capital inflows this year, some of it "hot money" betting on a stronger renminbi.

The slower appreciation against the dollar could be a signal to discourage speculators.

Yet a handful of economists believe that the best way to limit speculation would be a one-off jump in the currency or a much more rapid appreciation.

According to Lawrence Goodman at Bank of America, China's current methods for absorbing capital inflows - sterilisation through bond issues and higher reserve requirements - might be reaching their limit. "There is some possibility that the central bank will enter a new phase characterised by a more swift appreciation in the currency," he says.

Other economists say that there has been no change in the policy of quelling inflation with a stronger currency, only a shift in target. Change in the renminbidollar rate may have slowed, they say, but appreciation against other trading partners, such as South Korea and Japan, has accelerated.

"Currency appreciation remains a key policy priority, but on a trade-weighted basis rather than just against the US dollar," says Stephen Green, economist at Standard Chartered.

中国 > 经济 > 特稿
 
众说纷纭的中国汇率政策
 
英国《金融时报》杰夫•代尔(Geoff Dyer)北京报道
2008年6月27日 星期五
 

 

当许多亚洲国家政府表示希望通过提升汇率来遏制通胀之际,一些经济学家认为,中国可能已经对这种想法不再热衷。

去年11月份,中国通胀水平加速上升,当局开始加快人民币对美元升值的步伐,因此,今年第一季度人民币升值幅度折合成年率高达近20%。

然而,从4月中旬开始,这种模式发生了变化。一段时期内人民币汇率几乎没有变化,其后又开始升值,但步伐较为缓慢。上周在安纳波利斯举行的中美战略经济对话上,中国官员抱怨美元急剧贬值,这推动了有关中国政府将改变策略的进一步传闻。

许多观察人士指出,在人民币升值步伐放缓的同时,中国国内出现了针对出口商所面临困境的尖锐批评。造成这些困难的原因包括人民币升值、新劳动法的实施以及更加严格的环保规定。

“政府内部有越来越多的声音对人民币快速升值提出警告,有时甚至主张贬值,”加利福尼亚大学圣地亚哥分校(University of California in San Diego)中国经济学教授巴里•诺顿(Barry Naughton)表示,不过他指出,成本的上升并未妨碍出口强劲增长。

今年资本流入的急剧飙升也令汇率管理工作更为复杂,其中一些“热钱”押注于人民币升值。

人民币对美元升值的放缓,可能是阻止投机者的一个信号。

然而,少数经济学家认为,限制投机的最佳方式是实现人民币一次性升值或加速升值。

美国银行(Bank of America)的劳伦斯•古德曼(Lawrence Goodman)表示,中国目前吸收资本流入的方法——通过发行债券和提高准备金率进行冲销——可能将达到极限。“央行将有可能进入一个以人民币加速升值为特征的新阶段。”

译者/管婧

 
 

Currency and climate as crux

By Geoff Dyer

Published: July 7 2008 03:00 | Last updated: July 7 2008 03:00

A seat at the top table comes with a price tag. Chinese leaders at the G8 summit in Hokkaido are likely to find themselves under pressure on two specific fronts - the currency and carbon emissions.

In recent weeks, China has been pushing back quite effectively against some of the external pressure it faces to accelerate the appreciation of the renminbi. Government officials have joined the chorus of concern about the rapid drop in value of the dollar, which some countries believe is a cause of global inflationary pressure.

Yet this stance disguises the very real debate taking place within China about currency policy. In recent months, Chinese media have been full of stories about the difficulties that parts of the export sector are facing as a result of the rise in the renminbi - up by about 20 per cent against the dollar since the authorities abandoned the dollar peg in 2005.

With the currency currently trading at around Rmb6.85 to the dollar, Tan Yaling, a researcher at Beijing University, was quoted, in late June, saying a rate of Rmb6.5 would be "the line of life and death" for state-owned exporters.

However, with China still facing a relatively high level of consumer price inflation - 7.7 per cent in May - some economists believe that appreciating the currency is the most effective policy for containing inflation.

Moreover, the surge in capital inflows that China has received this year - some in hope of further currency appreciation - has started a discussion about whether the authorities should introduce a one-off increase in the renminbi to stem the tide.

"Policymakers need to weigh the beneficial impact of more rapid introduction of exchange- rate flexibility on containing speculative inflows against the potentially detrimental impact on the real economy," the World Bank said in a recent report.

On the environment, which will be one of the main topics of the summit, recent research has confirmed that China has now become the largest emitter of carbon dioxide in the world.

Until recently, the government's response to such suggestions was to point out that Chinese per capita emissions are well below levels in developed countries. China's leaders bristle at the idea that already wealthy countries will tell it to halt development.

However, the attitude has begun to change in Beijing - in part because of a recognition that climate change could have a potentially huge impact on China itself.

A report published last year by government scientists warned that global warming could have a huge effect on water supplies and agriculture, two of the most sensitive issues in China.

Just a fortnight before the summit, the Xinhua news agency released comments made in late June by President Hu Jintao at a special session of the Politburo held to discuss the environment. "How we cope with climate change is related to the country's economic development and people's practical benefits," he said.

As a result, the tone of China's diplomacy on the environment has begun to shift. Chinese leaders now talk about the need for partnerships with developed countries over climate change.

In a recent piece in the FT, vice-premier Wang Qishan called for the establishment of joint research laboratories between China and the US for new environmental technologies. The subtext of these statements seems clear: China is more willing to become involved in discussions about climate change but the price will be the transfer of technologies developed in the west.

中国 > 经济 > 特稿
 
中国面临两难局面
 
作者:英国《金融时报》杰夫•代尔(Geoff Dyer)
2008年7月9日 星期三
 

主席台拥有一席之地要付出相应的代价。出席日本北海道八国集团(G8)峰会的中国领导人可能会发现,自己在两个特定方面正面临压力——汇率和碳排放。

最近数周,中国一直在卓有成效地抵御它所面临的一些外部压力:外界要求中国加速人民币升值。政府官员们纷纷表达对美元迅速贬值的忧虑,一些国家认为,这是造成全球通胀压力的原因之一。

然而这种姿态却掩盖了中国内部围绕货币政策正在发生的真实辩论。最近数月,中国媒体一直充斥着一些出口企业面临困难的报道,原因是人民币升值。自2005年中国政府放弃盯住美元的汇率制度以来,人民币兑美元汇率的升幅近20%。

对于目前大约1美元兑6.85元人民币的汇率,6月下旬有报道援引北京大学研究员谭雅玲的话称,1美元兑6.5元人民币将是国有出口企业的 “生死线”。

然而,由于中国仍面临相对较高的消费者价格指数(CPI)——5月份为7.7%,一些经济学家认为,本币升值是抑制通胀最为有效的政策。

此外,中国今年接收的资本流入大增——其中一些是押注人民币进一步升值——已经引发了一场讨论:政府是否应对人民币施行一次性升值,以阻止资金涌入的浪潮。

世界银行(World Bank)在最近的一份报告中表示:“政策制定者需要权衡更快引入汇率灵活性对抑制投机性资本流入的有利影响,及其对实体经济潜在的不利影响。”

在环境问题上,近来的研究已证实:中国目前已成为全球最大二氧化碳排放国。这一问题将是此次峰会的主要议题之一。

直到最近,中国政府对这些提议的回应,是指出中国人均排放量远低于发达国家的水平。中国领导人对已富裕起来的国家让它停止发展的想法感到恼火。

不过,中国政府中这一态度已开始改变,部分原因在于,中国认识到气候变化可能会对自身产生巨大的潜在影响。

政府科学家去年发布的一份报告警告称,全球变暖将会对水供应和农业产生巨大的影响——这属于中国最敏感的问题。

就在此次峰会召开的前两周,新华社(Xinhua News Agency)发表了国家主席胡锦涛主持中共中央政治局(Politburo)第六次集体学习时的讲话。这次学习于6月27日举行,目的是讨论环境问题。胡锦涛表示:“妥善应对气候变化,事关我国经济社会发展全局和人民群众切身利益。”

其结果是,中国在环境问题上的外交基调开始发生了转变。中国领导人目前谈到,需要就气候变化与发达国家进行合作。

在英国《金融时报》最近的一篇文章中,中国国务院副总理王岐山提倡建立研发环保新技术的中美联合实验室。这些声明的潜台词似乎十分明确:中国更愿意参与气候变化的相关讨论,但条件将是转让西方开发出的相关技术。

译者/董琴

 
 
 
热钱”之忧
 
当前的“热钱”问题本身不足深忧,但中国经济面临的最严峻挑战仍然是输入型流动性过剩推高通货膨胀水平,威胁经济健康与社会稳定,为此应坚持人民币升值进程
  “热钱”汹汹,伴随着盛夏的热浪,成为中国经济的一大热门话题。当前“热钱”究竟有多少,专家学者仍然是仁智互见,但今年上半年的 “热钱”流入增速大幅提升,已成不争的事实。近日,国家外管局、商务部、海关总署着手采取一系列措施,以加强资金流动监管、完善出口与收结汇审核,愈显示出政府对于跨境资本流动的关注紧密,监控日严。
  直面日益加剧的“热钱”挑战无疑是必要的。其实,自人民币形成升值预期以来,“热钱”二字就在不断地刺激国人的神经;而人民币升值,则是中国经济长期持续增长的派生结果。正因为此,外汇资本大量涌入,其中既有着眼短期套利的“押宝”者,也有意在分享中国经济增长的长远投资者。国际收支的贸易顺差是中国巨额外汇收入之源,“热钱”在此基础上产生并推波助澜,更因一年来欧美金融市场波动经济下滑而加剧。
  只要升值预期仍然持续,“热钱”就难以避免。而当前“热钱”担忧升温,源于两个不同层次的考虑,其一是担心“热钱”今日“大进”他日“大出”,可能会对中国金融市场乃至实体经济造成难以估量的冲击;其二是担心“热钱”流入增速,对国内宏观经济形势,特别是货币政策的实施带来负面影响。当然,二者亦互相关联。
  我们以为,这两种担忧均不无道理。但于前者不必忧之过甚,于后者绝不可掉以轻心。
  “大进大出”之忧,直接与“热钱”数字的估算相关。当前各种专家学者的估计,从两三千亿美元到1.75万亿美元均有,差距相当大。事实上,如果严格将 “热钱”定义为短期投机牟利而进出中国市场的资金,进而将流入后可长期留在境内的国际资本排除在外,“热钱”或不止于两三千亿美元,但亦不会超出甚多。这一规模不小,但不足以动摇根本,本身不必过度紧张。关注资本的“大进大出”,更需关心经济之本。
  国际经验表明,当一个经济体增长迅猛、币值上升时,必然吸引外来资本流入。但只要相关经济体本身根基稳固,大规模“热钱”外逃即难以发生;而一旦经济基本面出现致命缺陷,缺乏控制“热钱”进出的有效机制,资本外逃必然发生。
  今年中国经济增速可能会放慢,但在得当的宏观调控下维持较高增长水平,保持“一枝独秀”之势,仍然大有希望。其他经济体难以超过中国的投资回报。资本账户的开放节奏,也掌握在中国政府手中。将近1.8万亿美元的外汇储备,更提供了一个有效的“缓冲”地带。
  当然,没有理由因之轻看“热钱”加速流入的负面影响。决策者不仅应当对“大进大出”始终保持警觉,亦须看到,当前包括“热钱”在内的外汇资产大量流入,已经对国内正在施行的紧缩货币政策造成直接冲击。由于人民币与美元事实上紧密联系,中国近年来一直在被动输入高度宽松的美国货币政策,在美联储去夏以来七次减息后更是如此;央行虽然通过发行票据进行对冲,但基础货币投放压力也仍在不断加大,流动性仍在增加。2007年以来,央行加息6次,提高存款准备金率15次,银行间拆借市场利率却仅有小幅上扬,足见货币政策作为受阻。
  外汇资产膨胀,本身就在推高国内的通胀。流动性的不断产生,增加了全面通胀的风险;人民币由于随着美元持续疲软,对一揽子货币的有效汇率已经降低,在刺激出口需求的同时,也把较高的进口价格转化为较高的国内价格。
  当前的中国经济的确面临着多重艰巨挑战,但最严峻者仍然是输入型流动性过剩推高通货膨胀水平,威胁经济健康与社会稳定。减缓外汇资产的积累速度,弱化与美国货币政策的紧密联系,由此至关重要。不可否认,在人民币渐进升值、美欧需求不振及国内紧缩货币政策的三重挤压之下,相当一批出口型企业面临巨大压力,反应强烈。但若鱼与熊掌不可得兼,政策的取舍,取的应是国内经济健康与社会稳定,舍的应是外部顺差。孰轻孰重不难判断。以此为前提,决策者还应坚持人民币升值甚至加快升值的策略。倘人民币升值到一定幅度,市场上出现较大的做空力量时,短期投机资本的流入可能迅速减缓。
  在当前,针对“热钱”的治标之策,可为治本赢得时间。更严格的外汇管制,辅之以结构性政策,正属有效的治标行动。在执行中,应加大境外资本流入时需要考虑的不确定性和机会成本,甚至警示针对流入的资本征收税费;同时,应防止对企业正当的进出口造成过大的成本负担,影响正常的资金流转和业务。保证资本流入流出的可控,限制其规模和影响,并非一时之举,保持政策的连续性和可预见性,是避免经济发生大幅波动的必要前提。
  某种意义上说,当前“热钱”压力不断加大对于中国也是一件好事。压力加大则“压而思变”,改革本来就是逼出来的。■

(本文刊于7月7日出版的2008年第14期《财经》杂志)
 
 
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