A seat at the top
table comes with a price tag.
Chinese leaders at the G8 summit in
Hokkaido are likely to find
themselves under pressure on two
specific fronts - the currency and
carbon emissions.
In recent weeks,
China has been pushing back quite
effectively against some of the
external pressure it faces to
accelerate the appreciation of the
renminbi. Government officials have
joined the chorus of concern about
the rapid drop in value of the
dollar, which some countries believe
is a cause of global inflationary
pressure.
Yet this stance
disguises the very real debate
taking place within China about
currency policy. In recent months,
Chinese media have been full of
stories about the difficulties that
parts of the export sector are
facing as a result of the rise in
the renminbi - up by about 20 per
cent against the dollar since the
authorities abandoned the dollar peg
in 2005.
With the currency
currently trading at around Rmb6.85
to the dollar, Tan Yaling, a
researcher at Beijing University,
was quoted, in late June, saying a
rate of Rmb6.5 would be "the line of
life and death" for state-owned
exporters.
However, with
China still facing a relatively high
level of consumer price inflation -
7.7 per cent in May - some
economists believe that appreciating
the currency is the most effective
policy for containing inflation.
Moreover, the
surge in capital inflows that China
has received this year - some in
hope of further currency
appreciation - has started a
discussion about whether the
authorities should introduce a
one-off increase in the renminbi to
stem the tide.
"Policymakers need
to weigh the beneficial impact of
more rapid introduction of exchange-
rate flexibility on containing
speculative inflows against the
potentially detrimental impact on
the real economy," the World Bank
said in a recent report.
On the
environment, which will be one of
the main topics of the summit,
recent research has confirmed that
China has now become the largest
emitter of carbon dioxide in the
world.
Until recently,
the government's response to such
suggestions was to point out that
Chinese per capita emissions are
well below levels in developed
countries. China's leaders bristle
at the idea that already wealthy
countries will tell it to halt
development.
However, the
attitude has begun to change in
Beijing - in part because of a
recognition that climate change
could have a potentially huge impact
on China itself.
A report published
last year by government scientists
warned that global warming could
have a huge effect on water supplies
and agriculture, two of the most
sensitive issues in China.
Just a fortnight
before the summit, the Xinhua news
agency released comments made in
late June by President Hu Jintao at
a special session of the Politburo
held to discuss the environment.
"How we cope with climate change is
related to the country's economic
development and people's practical
benefits," he said.
As a result, the
tone of China's diplomacy on the
environment has begun to shift.
Chinese leaders now talk about the
need for partnerships with developed
countries over climate change.
In a recent piece
in the FT, vice-premier Wang Qishan
called for the establishment of
joint research laboratories between
China and the US for new
environmental technologies. The
subtext of these statements seems
clear: China is more willing to
become involved in discussions about
climate change but the price will be
the transfer of technologies
developed in the west.