Renminbi rise spurs efforts to bypass control

By Robin Kwong in Hong Kong

Published: March 31 2008 01:07 | Last updated: March 31 2008 01:07

A small detail in Anta Sports’ listing prospectus last July has yielded an unexpected headache for the Chinese sportswear company as the value of the renminbi rises.

The seemingly innocuous sentence declared that money raised by Anta from its Hong Kong initial public offering, but not immediately used, would be deposited into “interest-bearing bank accounts ... in Hong Kong”.

Most other Chinese companies have been less specific about where their unused IPO proceeds go.

But because of its specificity, Anta found its cash trapped in Hong Kong dollars as the renminbi rose by 7 per cent against the territory’s currency, which is pegged to the US dollar. As the majority of its costs were in renminbi, this meant that the value of Anta’s cash pile was steadily being eroded.

In addition, while China’s central bank was raising interest rates to cool the country’s overheating economy, Hong Kong banks were busy cutting rates as they were forced to follow US interest rate movements because of the currency peg.

Anta’s problem illustrates the difficulties that the renminbi’s steady appreciation has caused for companies trying to use foreign currency to fund investments in mainland China and get around the country’s capital controls to do so.

Anta’s IPO came during a strong bull run in the Hong Kong stock market, and the heavily oversubscribed offering yielded HK$3.1bn (US$398m, €252m, £200m) in proceeds, just HK$714m of which the company had spent by the end of the year.

This February Anta decided to remedy matters and issued a statement to the stock exchange saying it would transfer its extra cash into renminbi accounts in mainland banks to achieve better returns.

Paul Ling, chief financial officer, told the Financial Times that the difference in interest rates given by mainland Chinese banks versus Hong Kong banks was 2-3 percentage points. “But no matter what the interest rate is, it is hard to compete with the [expected] 10 per cent increase in the value of the renminbi this year.”

China’s capital controls mean that individuals and companies are allowed to convert just HK$20,000 of cash a day into renminbi under normal circumstances. Mr Ling declined to say how much he was able to convert every month, but he described the way Anta, and probably other companies, were legally transferring far larger amounts than the daily limit into China – a sensitive subject few other companies would discuss.

Anta takes bills from its wholly owned Chinese subsidiaries – invoices for wages and raw materials, among other things – and presents them to the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (Safe). Safe then gives permission for Anta’s Hong Kong-listed entity to exchange the amount needed to pay the bills, even if it is more than the daily HK$20,000 limit.

Since the Chinese subsidiary no longer has costs to pay, Mr Ling can then direct it to place its renminbi-denominated revenues into mainland banks to take advantage of higher interest rates and rising currency value, thus replenishing Anta’s cash reserves on the balance sheet.

 

China in clampdown on ‘hot’ money

By Geoff Dyer in Beijing

Published: July 2 2008 22:47 | Last updated: July 2 2008 22:47

China announced a major strengthening of capital controls on Wednesday in an attempt to limit the amount of speculative “hot money” entering the economy, which is frustrating its efforts to contain inflationary pressures.

In an announcement on its website, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (Safe), the country’s foreign exchange regulator, said that exporters would be required to park revenues in special accounts while the authorities verified the funds were the result of genuine trade.

The new system risks becoming a cumbersome burden for exporters, such as suppliers of cheap goods to western retailers.

Exporters will now be required to provide documentary evidence that their invoices are based on genuine transactions if they wish to change dollars into renminbi. The regulator said the new computer system for checking invoices would be introduced in August 4. A trial period begins on July 14.

Recent leaked figures showed record inflows of capital entering China over the past two months. Officials believe some money came in illegally after companies exaggerated export revenues.

China has become an attractive country for investors and companies because interest rates are now above US levels and the renminbi is expected to appreciate.

According to Reuters, China’s foreign exchange reserves increased by a record $114.8bn in April and May to $1,800bn. Although it is impossible to calculate how much of that inflow is short-term, speculative capital, the figures were substantially higher than the combined numbers for the trade surplus and foreign direct investment.

The capital inflows have made economic management more difficult because, even though domestic inflation has been high in recent months, the Chinese central bank has been reluctant to raise interest rates for fear of attracting more hot money.

Authorities have so far prevented the inflows from causing money supply to grow too sharply by issuing bonds and lifting bank reserve requirements.

However, the bond issues are expensive and some economists believe that the reserve requirements cannot go much higher before smaller banks start to suffer. The authorities are also worried about the impact on the financial system if many investors ever decided to withdraw large amount of funds from the country at the same time.

Although the Chinese authorities have long experience of managing capital controls, the risk is that the new system will be a burden that will damage business.

 

Beijing to tighten foreign companies law

By Patti Waldmeir in Shanghai

Published: July 2 2008 17:29 | Last updated: July 2 2008 17:29

Proposed changes to China’s patent law will require ­foreign companies making discoveries in the country to file for a patent in China first or risk losing legal protection of their intellectual property.

The new requirement, which could become law this year, comes at a time when Microsoft and other foreign companies are setting up research centres in China and trying to expand sales in the market.

Another proposal involves the adoption of an “absolute novelty” standard that will make it hard to get a ­Chinese patent for inventions that are already in use overseas.

Together, the proposed legal changes “will make it more challenging for foreign companies inventing in China”, said Elliot Papageorgiou, a patent law expert in the Shanghai office of Rouse & Co, an intellectual property consultancy.

However, he said that the new law would also “make it easier to challenge rogue Chinese patents”, an outcome that foreign companies should welcome.

Foreign companies and chambers of commerce have submitted comments on the draft legal amendments to Beijing but declined to discuss their feedback.

Most western countries also have a “file first at home” rule but the penalty for failing to do so will be tougher in China. If foreign companies fail to register Chinese discoveries first in China, rivals will be able to challenge the validity of any subsequent domestic patent and potentially block sales in the local market.

Most foreign companies that invent in China at present file for patent protection in the country in which they are based, where applications can be written in their native language by counsel experienced in the home country’s patent law. It has been known for multinational companies to send Chinese inventors to work temporarily in their home country, so that key patents can be filed overseas to prevent early disclosure to Chinese rivals.

If the revisions are adopted, foreign companies would have to draft patents in Chinese for inventions made in the country. But because China’s patent regime is so new – dating only from the early years of this century – there are relatively few Chinese-literate lawyers who are experienced in this area.

“The market is not quite ready in terms of the supply of high-level legal skills,” said Tony Chen of Jones Day, a law firm.

Mr Chen said that foreign companies had concerns about the new requirement. “They have to trust people in China to write the patent in a language they don’t understand and, when a problem happens, how can they explain it since they don’t even understand it?” he said.

ZTE, the big Chinese telecommunications equipment company, said it had made “suggestions to the government” about the law, noting that since “some inventions are jointly developed by ZTE’s China and overseas R&D institutes, it will be difficult to define where the inventions are discovered”.

Hal Wegner, a patent law expert at the law firm Foley & Lardner, said the new rule “will be inconvenient initially” but companies could adjust to it.

China risks a scorching as hot money flows in at record level

By Geoff Dyer in Beijing

Published: July 4 2008 03:00 | Last updated: July 4 2008 03:00

On the face of it, China might not seem the obvious place to invest at the moment. The local stock market has collapsed, property markets are weak and the interest rate on bank deposits is about half the rate of inflation.

Yet that has not prevented a record flood of capital inflows even higher than China's huge accumulation of reserves in recent years. In the first quarter, foreign exchange reserves rose by $154bn (€98bn, £78bn). On top of that, according to usually reliable figures leaked to Reuters, reserves jumped by $75bn in April and $40bn in May to a total of $1,800bn.

Given that the inflows far outstrip trade and direct foreign investment, China appears to be receiving vast amounts of speculative "hot money".

China has two big attractions for foreign investors - interest rates are higher than in the US and the currency is expected to appreciate. "China's FX reserves seem to have turned into some kind of massive black hole for the world's liquidity," says Stephen Green, economist at Standard Chartered.

The huge armoury of reserves was actually designed to withstand the volatile capital flows that helped cause the 1997 Asian financial crisis. However, ever-mounting reserves bring their own economic risks - inflation could be aggravated if the inflows cannot be managed and the financial system could suffer whiplash if investors decide to withdraw funds all at once.

Just how big a problem they present depends on how much of the reserve accumulation is the result of hot money, however that requires a lot of guesswork because the official numbers are not transparent.

Some of the big increase in headline reserves could be explained by accounting issues, such as the inclusion in reserves of reinvested profits from bond holdings or an increase in the recorded market value of the overseas assets in which Chinese reserves are invested.

Yet some economists believe the official numbers might actually understate the hot money inflows.

As part of the creation of China Investment Corporation, a $75bn-$100bn chunk of reserves was transferred to the new sovereign wealth fund. If most of that transfer took place in the first quarter of this year - as some analysts believe - then the surge in hot money inflows has been even higher.

Logan Wright at Stone & McCarthy analysts in Beijing estimates that hot money entering in the first five months could be as high as $150bn-$170bn.

There are plenty of legal routes to bring capital into China. Foreign residents can deposit up to $50,000 a year and Hong Kong residents have a much higher quota.

But government officials also believe that illegal transfers are taking place - through foreign companies declaring that funds are for direct investment and then putting the money in the bank and exporters exaggerating the value of overseas revenues in order to bring in extra funds. (As an aside, economists point out that if fraudulent export receipts really are widely used to bring in hot money, China's politically troublesome trade surplus would actually be much lower than thought.)

The authorities announced a new crackdown on this trade route on Wednesday, saying that exporters would not actually receive payment until they could prove to their bank that revenues were the result of real trade transactions recorded by Chinese customs.

However companies and analysts were sceptical that the new capital controls would limit illegal capital flows. One exporter in Beijing said that simply checking documents given to the customs would not expose exaggerated invoices: inspectors would need to examine the actual value of the cargo itself to prove fraud. More-over if this new process is rigorously applied, the risk is that it will increase the burden on genuine trade.

China's central bank has faced huge capital inflows for several years and has so far managed to limit the impact on the domestic economy by draining the excess liquidity in the financial system through bonds issues and obliging commercial banks to deposit more money in reserves.

However, there are some signs that the system for sterilising inflows is reaching its limit. The higher reserve requirements are putting heavy pressure on some cash-poor, smaller banks.

Minggao Shen at Citigroup says that the only countries in the world with higher reserve ratios are Zambia, Croatia and Tajikistan and that Chinese levels cannot go much higher.

Moreover, the difference between Chinese and US interest rates means that the central bank is making a loss on its bond issues, which have been rare in recent months.

If the system of sterilising inflows is becoming hard to operate, then the Chinese authorities could find themselves in a trap. Facing inflation at home, the obvious response is to appreciate the currency or raise interest rates. But both those options attract more hot money that will feed inflation.

"We are passed the point when there were easy solutions," says Michael Pettis, a finance professor at Beijing University.

中国 > 经济 > 特稿
 
国际热钱为何涌向中国?
 
作者:英国《金融时报》杰夫•代尔(Geoff Dyer)北京报道
2008年7月7日 星期一
 

表面上看,目前中国似乎并非投资的上选之地:本土股市大幅下跌,地产市场低迷,而银行存款利率仅为通胀率的一半左右。

然而,这并不能阻碍创纪录的资本流入,甚至超过了中国近年来所累积的巨额外汇储备。第一季度,中国外汇储备增加了1540亿美元。在此基础上,据透露给路透社(Reuters)的数字(通常比较可靠)显示,4月份外汇储备骤增750亿美元,5月份增加了400亿美元,总额将达到1.8万亿美元。

鉴于资本流入远远超过贸易和外国直接投资总量,中国似乎正在接收巨额的投机性“热钱”。

对于外国投资者而言,中国有两大吸引力——利率水平高于美国,以及人民币升值的预期。“中国外汇储备似乎已变成吸取全球流动性的某种巨大的黑洞,”渣打银行(Standard Chartered)经济学家王志浩(Stephen Green)表示。

巨额的外汇储备实际上是用来抵御资本流动波动的,这种情况曾引发1997年亚洲金融危机。然而,不断增长的外汇储备也带来了自身的经济风险——如果资本流入无法得到控制,通胀将会加剧;同时,如果投资者决定突然撤离资金,金融体系会受到冲击。

这带来的问题究竟有多严重,取决于累积的外汇储备中有多大比例是热钱所导致的。然而,由于官方数字不透明,这需要大量的臆测。

官方报道的储备大幅增长中,一部分可以用会计方法来解释,例如包括了债券持有的重新投资利润,或已被记录过的中国储备投资的海外资产市值增量。

但一些经济学家认为,官方数字实际上可能低估了热钱流入。

创建中投公司(China Investment Corporation)时,一笔750亿至1000亿美元的外汇储备被转到了这家新主权基金名下。如果像一些分析师所认为的那样,转账大部分发生在今年第一季度,那么热钱流入的增幅会更高。

Stone & McCarthy驻北京分析师洛根•莱特(Logan Wright)估计,今年前5个月流入的热钱可能高达1500亿至1700亿美元。

资本进入中国的合法途径很多。外国居民每年最多可以存款5万美元,而香港居民的额度则更高。

但政府官员也认为目前存在非法转移资金的情况——方法是外国公司声称资金是用作直接投资,之后将钱存入银行;或是出口商夸大海外收入,以便带入额外资金。(说句题外话,经济学家指出,如果欺骗性的出口收据真的被广泛应用,以带入热钱,那么在政治上令中国头疼的贸易顺差实际上要比想象的少得多。)

中国政府周三公布了一项针对这种贸易途径的打击举措,宣布出口商只有向银行证明收入是经中国海关记录的真实贸易交易所得后,才能收到支付款。

然而,公司和分析人士均怀疑新的资本管制能否限制非法资本流动。北京的一位出口商表示,仅靠检查呈递海关的文件,不会暴露出夸大的收据:检查人员需要检查货物本身的实际价值,来证明欺诈。此外,如果严格实施这种新程序,就存在增加真实贸易负担的风险。

数年来,中国央行一直面临着巨额的资本流入。迄今为止,通过发行债券来分流金融体系内过剩的流动性,并强制各商业银行提高准备金,央行限制了资本流入对国内经济的影响。

然而,一些迹象表明,“冲销”(sterilise)资金流入的体系已接近极限。准备金率上调给一些资金困难的小型银行带来了沉重的压力。

花旗集团(Citigroup)经济学家沈明高表示,世界上少数几个准备金率更高的国家包括赞比亚、克罗地亚和塔吉克斯坦,中国的准备金率不能再提高了。

除此之外,中美之间的利差意味着中国央行发行债券正在蒙受损失,这在近几个月十分罕见。

如果资本流入的冲销体系变得难以运行,中国政府将陷入困境。面对国内的通胀局面,显而易见的对策是人民币升值或提高利率。但这两种选择都会吸引更多的热钱,进而推高通胀。

北京大学金融系教授迈克尔•佩蒂斯(Michael Pettis)表示:“我们已过了临界点,目前没有简单的解决办法。”

译者/陈云飞

 
中国 > 经济 > 专栏
 
CHINA LIQUIDITY
 
Lex
Tuesday, June 10, 2008
 

China

took markets by surprise at the weekend, lifting the ratio of reserves that banks must hold by 100 basis points. This is the fifth hike of the year, as well as the biggest, and brings the ratio up to 17.5 per cent. What does Beijing know that nobody else does? Inflation numbers, due out on Thursday, look like a red herring. Agricultural and food price indices adumbrate a slight deceleration in consumer price inflation; besides, impounding an additional $50-60bn in the banks does little to curb spiralling prices when loan growth is steaming along at 14-15 per cent year-on-year. More likely, the move relates to the speculative capital inflows pouring into the country. One proxy for these is the growth in foreign exchange reserves, up $150bn in the first three months of the year. Early indications suggest forex reserves surged a whopping $75bn in April, a 50 per cent increase in the rate of reserve accretion, though the official numbers have yet to be released.

Deducing how much of this is down to speculative capital inflows – essentially money chasing interest rate differentials and expected renminbi appreciation – is tricky. Detail on accounting and other methodologies is thin. The picture is further skewed by China's ability to park dollar reserves in other pockets, including the commercial banks (which hold perhaps $120bn in dollars as part of their required reserves) and China Investment Corp, the sovereign wealth fund. Nonetheless, deducting the trade surplus and foreign direct investment numbers plus interest payments and valuation gains, Standard Chartered reckons residual flows, mostly from portfolio investors, came to $30bn in each of the first three months of this year and $70bn in April. Beijing's challenge lies in staunching these inflows. Raising reserve requirements is cheaper than sterilising dollar purchases; but there is a limit. Over $1,000bn is now frozen in reserves, including an excess buffer, and bank profitability suffers heavily once the ratio passes 20 per cent. Stemming the flow with administrative measures is one option, but given their magnitude of flows, tighter capital controls are a strong possibility.

 
 
中国 > 经济 > 专栏
 
中国流动性之忧
 
英国《金融时报》Lex专栏
2008年6月10日 星期二
 

乎市场意料,中国央行周末将银行存款准备金率上调了100个基点。这是年内第5次上调,也是上调幅度最大的一次,使存款准备金率达到17.5%。中国政府究竟知道什么他人所不知的信息呢?定于本周四发布的通胀数据,看上去就像是一个转移注意力的话题。农产品和粮食价格指数预示消费者价格通胀增速略有放缓;此外,在信贷以14%至15%的同比增幅疾速扩大的情况下,额外冻结500亿至600亿美元的银行资金,对抑制价格螺旋形上涨作用不大。更可能的是,此举与涌入中国的投机资本有关。迹象之一是外汇储备的增长,今年第一季度增加了1500亿美元。尽管官方数据尚未公布,但初步迹象显示,4月外汇储备激增750亿美元,增速加快了50%。

要推算出外汇储备的增加有多少来自投机资本流入十分棘手。投机资本即投机于利差和人民币升值预期的资金。外汇储备会计规则和其它方法论的细节不够清晰。中国政府将美元储备置于不同机构的做法进一步扭曲了画面。持有外汇储备的机构包括商业银行(持有约1200亿美元作为法定准备金的一部分)和主权财富基金中投公司(CIC)。但渣打(Standard Chartered)估计,在扣除贸易顺差和外商直接投资以及利息支付与估值收益后,今年前3个月每月流入的剩余资金(主要来自证券投资者)为300亿美元,4月份达700亿美元。中国政府面临的挑战在于遏制此类资金流入。提高准备金率比冲销美元购买成本更低;但存在一定限度。如今,包括超额准备金在内,中国冻结的准备金超过1万亿美元,而一旦准备金率超过20%,银行的盈利能力就会严重受损。以政策手段遏止资金流入是选择之一,但鉴于资金流数额巨大,实施更严格的资本控制可能是更有力的手段。

Lex专栏是由FT评论家联合撰写的短评,对全球经济与商业进行精辟分析。

译者/管婧

 
中国 > 经济 > 评论
 
中国需警惕热钱危机
 
英国《金融时报》中文网特约撰稿人张明
2008年6月10日 星期二
 

前越南经济已呈山雨欲来风满楼之势,金融危机一触即发。越南国内通胀高企,同时又伴随着资本大规模外逃的现象。在此情况下,有人担心越南的危机可能传递到中国,但这种担心是很难成立的。最根本的原因在于,越南经济与中国经济的基本面迥异:当前越南面临的是贸易赤字、财政赤字、货币贬值压力以及失控的通货膨胀,而中国面临的是贸易盈余、财政盈余、货币升值压力以及可控的通货膨胀。

不过,虽然中国不可能爆发越南式金融危机,但中国经济中同样潜伏着大规模危机的可能性,这便是热钱集中撤出引发的资产价格泡沫破灭、国际收支逆转以及全面金融危机。

社科院世界经济与政治研究所的研究表明,从2005年人民币汇率改革以来,流入中国的热钱规模迅速上升。2005年到2007年三年间流入中国的热钱超过8000亿美元,占2007年底中国外汇储备存量的一半以上。

尤其令人担心的是,进入2008年以后,随着人民币对美元升值幅度的加快,热钱流入的规模有增无减(参见图:“热钱”大量涌入)。2008年第1季度中国外汇储备增加1539亿美元,同期贸易顺差为415亿美元,实际利用FDI为274亿美元。用“外汇储备增加额—贸易顺差—FDI”的方法粗略估算,则第1季度流入中国的热钱规模高达851亿美元,占外汇储备增加额的55%。2008年4月中国外汇储备增加745亿美元,同期贸易顺差为167亿美元,实际利用FDI为76亿美元,则今年4月流入中国的热钱规模为502亿美元,占外汇储备增加额的67%。


 

有观点认为,用贸易顺差与FDI不能解释的外汇储备增长额来计算热钱规模是并不准确的。在外汇储备增长额中,既包括新增外汇资金流入,也包括由于欧元、日元升值带来的外汇储备规模增长,还包括外汇储备资产获得的投资收益。如果考虑到后面两种因素,则流入的热钱规模将会降低一半左右。

但应该看到,上述计算方法依然遗漏了一些因素,这些因素包括:其一,从2007年中期开始,中央银行要求商业银行以外汇资产缴纳法定存款准备金,这事实上降低了外汇储备的增长规模;其二,从2007年第4季度到2008年第1季度,央行向中投公司提供了至少600-700亿美元的外汇储备注资。如果考虑到这两个因素,则流入的热钱规模将重新上升。

更加值得重视的是,在贸易顺差和FDI中也隐藏了大量的热钱流入。例如,通过出口高开发票、进口低开发票的转移定价策略,热钱就通过贸易渠道流入国内。此外,企业也常常使用预收货款、延迟付款,甚至伪造贸易合同等手段。再如,在FDI资本金结汇之后,这些资金未必用于固定资产投资等生产性用途,而是直接趴在银行账户上赚取人民币升值收益以及利差,或者进入房地产市场或股票市场赚取资产溢价。

除了企业之外,推动热钱涌入中国的主体也包括个人。2007年仅中国居民将美元兑换成人民币的规模就高达千亿美元以上。一方面,国家外汇管理局逐渐放宽了对中国居民换汇的限制,目前中国居民每年的外汇兑换额度已经从2万美元上升到5万美元;另一方面,香港金管局给香港居民向内地汇款大开方便之门,目前香港居民每天可以通过银行将8万人民币的款项汇至国内。容易观察到,香港居民到深圳存款的风潮愈演愈烈,与香港汽车到深圳加油的景象“交相辉映”。

目前国内讨论较多的一个问题是,热钱流到国内什么地方去了?从2007年10月起,中国A股市场步入下降通道,房地产市场也陷入萎靡,这两个市场上都未出现成交量大幅上升的局面。难道新近流入的热钱仅仅满足于趴在银行账户上赚取汇差和利差?这个问题目前还没有令人信服的解释。

热钱对一国宏观经济和资本市场的危害是有目共睹的。热钱大规模流入会加剧一国流动性过剩的局面,推动通货膨胀和资产价格泡沫。而更令人担忧的是,一旦热钱突然大规模撤出,将会刺破一国的资产价格泡沫,并通过负向财富效应与托宾Q效应作用于实体经济。此外,热钱的大规模流出可能导致中国出现经常账户逆差和资本账户逆差,人民币升值的基本面将发生逆转。随后而至的则可能是全面、持久的系统性金融危机。

正是出于对热钱大规模流出的担忧,使得央行在改变人民币升值策略的问题上陷入左右为难的境地。如果保持目前小幅稳健的升值策略,那么在人民币单边升值预期的刺激下,热钱将继续涌入,直至局面失控;如果转为实施一次性升值或自由浮动,则人民币汇率的超调可能引发热钱突然之间大规模流出。

中国应怎样应对热钱的大规模流入呢?首先,即使面临汇率超调的风险,仍然应该调整人民币的现有升值策略,打消投机者的单边升值预期。其次,应加强对资本流动、尤其是资本流出的管制,这具体包括:其一,加强对外债的监控;其二,加强对通过贸易和FDI渠道流入的热钱的识别和管理;其三,加强对经常转移项目的管理,尤其是境外捐赠;其四,加强对地下钱庄的打击;最后,收紧对中国居民和香港居民自由换汇的额度。毕竟,非常之时需用非常之策。

(作者为中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所博士,本文仅代表作者本人观点。)

 
 

 

 
封堵贸易“热钱” 三部委将打组合拳
    2008-07-04 16:47:59  来源: 21世纪经济报道  作者:杜艳 蒋云翔

 

  
 
这只是新一轮狙击热钱行动的第一道“杀手锏”。

7月2日晚间,国家外汇管理局、商务部和海关总署联合下发了《出口收结汇联网核查办法》(下称“《办法》”),以及《关于实行企业货物贸易项下外债登记管理有关问题的通知》。

这两项通知,旨在对企业的货物流与资金流进行联网监控,并对外贸项下外债的真实性进行核查。专家称,以贸易为主要内容的经常项目,已经成为境外热钱涌入的主要途径之一。

三部委终于实现联手、跨系统信息网络的互通共享来之不易,此举或可反映热钱流入形势之严重程度。然而,基于热钱的隐蔽性,新措施实施效果如何,依然有待观察。

而据有关人士透露,除了上述新政之外,更多的监管重拳将接踵而至,比如目前正在酝酿的对于企业资本金结汇的检查就是措施之一。

严查贸易真实性

实施出口收结汇联网核查,是以电子信息联网手段取代传统的纸质单证审核,通过将企业出口收结汇情况与其海关货物出口情况加以核对,有效甄别货物贸易项下资金流入的实际贸易背景,以保证出口及其收结汇的真实性和一致性。

国家外汇管理局相关人士告诉记者:“有了这个系统,就可以直接通过网络看到该笔货物在海关的报关情况,然后与企业报过来的收付汇数据进行核对,这样就最大限度地避免了虚假出口贸易的发生。”

此前,我国并没有建立专门的出口贸易联网核查系统。

国家外汇管理局人士表示,这一措施不仅有助于监管部门发现以假报关单骗汇的行为,还会对没有出口却有出口收汇,以及预收、延付等贸易信贷有明显抑制作用,达到了收结汇与真实贸易背景的吻合。

国家外汇管理局人士透露,为继续给合法规范经营企业的贸易活动提供便利,在确定出口与收结汇的真实性与一致性对应关系中,将充分考虑不同贸易类型和行业的特点,区别对待。

除了加强贸易真实性审核外,国家外汇管理局还同时发布了《关于实行企业货物贸易项下外债登记管理有关问题的通知》,对企业出口预收货款和进口延期付款实行登记管理。

根据上述通知,企业的出口预收货款或者进口延期付款,将纳入管理范畴,而之前,这方面并没有纳入专门管理。

国家外汇管理局人士表示,将根据正常国际贸易的发展水平,通过一定的公式计算,给企业一定的收汇额度,包括预收汇的额度。银行在进入贸易收付汇管理登记系统后,就可以看到企业的可使用额度,从而完成对该笔交易的审核。

通过加强预收货款与未来实际出口的跟踪监管,可防止无真实贸易背景的资金借用贸易渠道流入境内投机获利。并且,改进对进口延期付款的监督管理,可防止潜在的债务风险,防止未来资金集中大规模流出。

外管局人士指出,加强对贸易信贷的管理,将充分考虑大型成套设备、船舶等特殊行业和企业的实际需求。

酝酿已久

虽然热钱的规模难以准确估算,但业界普遍认为,从2002年底到2008年一季度,我国的外汇储备从2864.07亿美元猛增到16822亿美元,这当中有相当大部分属于热钱。

今年以来,由于通货膨胀预期加剧,热钱更是捕捉到“以汇率加速升值抑制通胀压力”的政策动向,开始加速涌入。今年前4个月,中国外汇储备增长即达到2283.9亿美元,几乎达到2006年全年外汇储备的新增规模。

根据建设银行研究部赵庆明博士的测算,从2005年到2007年底,通过贸易渠道流入我国的热钱就达到3400多亿美元,而通过单方面转移,即侨汇进入的约有1000亿元,另外,QFII进入的不到100亿美元。共计约为4500亿美元。

以此计算,通过贸易项下进来的热钱约占整个热钱规模的75%。在一定程度上,堵住了贸易项目就会大大减轻热钱涌入压力。

为了提高狙击热钱的有效性,国家外汇管理局对此轮新举措的实施酝酿已久。

今年6月份,外管局局长胡晓炼在大连、苏州、武汉三地就加强跨境资本流动监管问题进行了调研。

胡晓炼在调研时强调,要防范套利投机资金通过贸易、商业信用等渠道进行跨境转移是相关内容之一,需要加强和改善对经常项目外汇收支活动与实际贸易行为的真实性和一致性的核验,大力加强对短期外债的控制和管理,重点是完善贸易收结汇和贸易信贷管理。

这实际上已经释放了政策出台的信号。

价格真实性难以核验

从核准贸易真实性与出口收结汇的一致性角度,联网核查系统无疑为封堵热钱提供了有效的保障,但是,热钱流入途径万千,而即使通过贸易项下,亦有多种操作,外汇专家认为,这并不是堵住热钱的万能选择。

资深外汇市场人士告诉记者,这个系统只能一定程度上解决出口与其收结汇背离的问题,但是对于贸易的“价格真实性”核验则无能为力。

上述人士指出:“它并不能告诉银行或者外管局这份贸易的报价是否是真实的,是高报了还是低报了。”

而出口高报价和进口低报价,正是热钱变相流入的惯常办法。但是此系统对此并无识别能力。

更进一步需要讨论的是,赵庆明认为,即使堵住了贸易一个途径,热钱依然可以通过其它途径进来。

此前,在央行的《第一季度货币政策执行报告》里,总结了逐利外汇进入我国的七种渠道:一是货物贸易;二是在外商直接投资(FDI)项下和FDI“投注差”外债直接结汇;三是个人项下结汇;四是企业和金融机构境外股本融资渠道;五是服务贸易;六是合格境外机构投资者(QFII);七是利用黄金交易、期铜等大宗商品交易进行融资性质的操作达到套利目的。

这给出了热钱进入我国渠道的最全面概括。可以看出,货物贸易仅是途径之一。

赵庆明认为:“只要人民币升值的预期依然存在,热钱就会无孔不入,防不胜防。”

在他看来,要堵住热钱,需要做好两项工作:一是扭转人民币单边升值的预期;二是提高各项外汇管制工作的有效性和措施的严厉性。

此前,我国虽然在2005年就建立了对于异常结售汇企业的“黑名单”制度,但是迄今未见任何一家受到查处。赵庆明认为:“正是这种漠视,在一定程度上变成了纵容。”

 
 
 
围堵热钱 外管局彻查企业外汇资本金结汇
本报记者 杜艳 2008-7-8 0:22:00
异常跨境资本的加速涌入,让国家外汇管理局(以下简称外管局)开始从各个层面围堵“缺口”。

记者近日获悉,外管局正在对企业外汇资本金结汇进行全国性大检查,这是其上半年开展的异常跨境资金流入大检查的一个重要内容。之前,外管局已对贸易项下的资金异动进行了大检查,并于上周推出针对性举措——“出口收结汇联网核查系统”,旨在对企业虚假贸易结汇进行严控。

外管局相关人士告诉记者,这是一项全国性大检查,本次大检查于3月份在全国各地方分局同时展开,目前已经告一段落。

外汇资本金异常加速涌入

促使外管局做出全国统一检查的原因,是企业近两年来外汇资本金异常加速涌入、并大规模结汇的疯狂作为。

某地方外管局人士告诉记者,他们监测到的异常是,企业的外汇资本金流入不仅规模变大,而且资金到位时间明显缩短。

“以前一般会要求两年内资本金全额到位,企业会在这个时间内将资金分笔注入,但是现在基本上只要商务部批了,在最短的时间内就到账了。”上述人士告诉记者。

不仅资金全额到账提速,而且一些企业开始异常扩大资本金规模。

该局监管中发现,某新注册的外资咨询公司,竟然注册资本金达到数千万美元。监管部门认为,“咨询公司根本不需要如此大规模的资本金,这肯定是非常异常的”。

除了做大外汇资本金规模,并加速资本金到位外,外汇资本金的结汇量也大幅攀升。

某沿海地区外管局人士告诉记者:“从2002年出现人民币升值预期以来,企业外汇资本金结汇就开始异常高增长,这个势头在今年达到了峰值。”

就其当地的检查情况看,企业外汇资本金结汇量达到了流入量的80%以上,而在2002年这个数字不到50%。

其介绍,与外债和外汇贷款主要用于支付企业流动资金不同,企业资本金结汇后主要用于固定资产投资支付,如采购机器设备、购置土地等,正常年份下,外汇资本金结汇一般会根据其支付进程,而分批分时段进行。

但是,在人民币升值预期之下,特别是在去年人民币年升值达到6.9%以来,企业的外汇资本金结汇开始加速进行。

“基本上,进来之后,就立即想办法结汇了。”地方外管局人士说。

从企业角度,这似乎是一种正常的财务安排。但是,这个过程中,不少企业开始绕开外汇管制,违规操作,达到结汇目的。

资本金结汇有机可乘

商业银行人士告诉记者,目前的结汇制度是“支付结汇制”,也就是说,只有提供支付合同的情况下,才可以向商业银行提出结汇。但这种意在控制企业无真实支付需求的结汇制度,对企业的结汇管制效果并不理想。

其透露,目前银行对企业的结汇基本“束手无策”。

实际上,从2002年起,我国在经过对20多个省的试点后,从当年7月1日开始改革外商投资项下资本金结汇管理方式,将外商投资项下资本金结汇业务,授权符合条件的外汇指定银行直接审核办理。银行在授权范围内履行审核、统计监测和报备责任。外管局变直接管理企业为重点监管银行。

在这样的制度安排下,企业只需要向银行提交支付合同,就可以申请资本金结汇。这无疑为企业“钻空子”提供了可能。

“钻空子”的方式大致有两种:一种是通过关联公司交易,将资本金结汇后支付到关联公司账上;二是提前支付货款,或者将本来可以按期付款的货物提前全额付清。

而外汇资本金流入及结汇的异常高增长,隐含的正是热钱的影子。

根据社科院世界经济与政治研究所张明博士的估计,热钱从2005年到2008年一季度,除却错误与遗漏项下资金估算,其本金合计收益的累计规模大约达到1.75万亿美元。

但是目前,针对热钱的控制,针对资本项下的资本金结汇并没有更好的治理办法。

外管局人士透露:“较有效的办法是核定资本金结汇的比例,比如根据正常的资本金结汇的数据核定其系数,以此控制结汇规模。”但这个方案的弊端是,要根据不同的行业确定不同的系数,操作成本极高。

另外,有效控制异常的外汇资本金涌入和结汇,亦需要不同部门的协调配合,需要地方政府、商务部、外管局对外资流入的管控达成广泛共识。

 
  The Wall Street Journal  
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中国加强资本管制以遏制热钱流入

 
2008年07月04日08:49
 

 

 
国政府宣布将采用新的出口收结汇联网核查系统,以此加强资本管制力度,遏制不断飙升的资金流入。正是这些资金加大了政府和通货膨胀作斗争的难度。但新的外汇核查系统将带来沉重的行政负担,并可能导致资金转从其他渠道流入。

国家外汇管理局(State Administration of Foreign Exchange)周三晚间发表公告称,出口商的海外销售收入应先汇入一个特殊帐户,在经过核查之后方可办理结汇手续。这套即将于7月14日投入使用的新系统将会对照企业出口收结汇和实际交易情况,确保不会有多余的外汇流入中国。

目前中国政府对所谓热钱的涌入越来越感到担忧。中国的外汇储备4、5月份分别增长了745亿和403亿美元,总额现已达到了1.797万亿美元。由于人民币兑美元汇率不断攀升,且在可预见的未来升势不改,许多经济学家因此认为在这些资金流入的背后,就有那些想从人民币升值中掘金的投机者。

虽然中国的资本管制措施严格限制了绝大多数标准的海外资本投资渠道,但中国的贸易资金流动极为庞大,而且监管也没有那么严格。经济学家一直认为许多出口商虚报合法贸易收入,以便将资金挪入挪出国门。

这令中国政府深受其扰,因为大笔的外资流入会提升本地银行系统内的现金规模,在消费者价格指数已较上年同期上升逾7%的情况下,中国的通货膨胀压力无疑会随之加剧。但贸易资金流动的庞大规模也给政府监管带来了挑战。

Moody’s Economy.com的Sherman Chan在周四一份报告中写道,新政策可能听起来不错,但实施起来会很困难。该分析师指出,对巨额贸易资金流动进行详尽核查将耗费中国政府大量的时间与精力。中国是全球第二大商品出口国,去年出口总额高达1.218万亿美元。

鉴于人民币仍被普遍认为明显低估,汇率也一直稳步攀升,导致外资涌入中国的动因并没有改变。她表示,这只是个治标不治本的做法,如果中国政府不改革人民币汇率体制,国际投机资本还是会寻找途径流入中国,从赌人民币升值这一稳赚不赔的买卖中获利。

而且,就在中国政府试图控制一个资本流入渠道的同时,他们又开辟了另外一条渠道。为了满足北京奥运会期间海外游客的消费需求,国家外汇管理局还放松对了海外游客来华兑换人民币的限制。

根据规定,7月8日至10月17日期间,境外游客每人可兑换不超过5万美元的人民币。相比之下,在中国的外国居民通常每年的购汇总额上限为5万美元。

Andrew Batson

 

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中国加强资本管制以遏制热钱流入

 
2008年07月04日08:49
 
 
国政府宣布将采用新的出口收结汇联网核查系统,以此加强资本管制力度,遏制不断飙升的资金流入。正是这些资金加大了政府和通货膨胀作斗争的难度。但新的外汇核查系统将带来沉重的行政负担,并可能导致资金转从其他渠道流入。

国家外汇管理局(State Administration of Foreign Exchange)周三晚间发表公告称,出口商的海外销售收入应先汇入一个特殊帐户,在经过核查之后方可办理结汇手续。这套即将于7月14日投入使用的新系统将会对照企业出口收结汇和实际交易情况,确保不会有多余的外汇流入中国。

目前中国政府对所谓热钱的涌入越来越感到担忧。中国的外汇储备4、5月份分别增长了745亿和403亿美元,总额现已达到了1.797万亿美元。由于人民币兑美元汇率不断攀升,且在可预见的未来升势不改,许多经济学家因此认为在这些资金流入的背后,就有那些想从人民币升值中掘金的投机者。

虽然中国的资本管制措施严格限制了绝大多数标准的海外资本投资渠道,但中国的贸易资金流动极为庞大,而且监管也没有那么严格。经济学家一直认为许多出口商虚报合法贸易收入,以便将资金挪入挪出国门。

这令中国政府深受其扰,因为大笔的外资流入会提升本地银行系统内的现金规模,在消费者价格指数已较上年同期上升逾7%的情况下,中国的通货膨胀压力无疑会随之加剧。但贸易资金流动的庞大规模也给政府监管带来了挑战。

Moody’s Economy.com的Sherman Chan在周四一份报告中写道,新政策可能听起来不错,但实施起来会很困难。该分析师指出,对巨额贸易资金流动进行详尽核查将耗费中国政府大量的时间与精力。中国是全球第二大商品出口国,去年出口总额高达1.218万亿美元。

鉴于人民币仍被普遍认为明显低估,汇率也一直稳步攀升,导致外资涌入中国的动因并没有改变。她表示,这只是个治标不治本的做法,如果中国政府不改革人民币汇率体制,国际投机资本还是会寻找途径流入中国,从赌人民币升值这一稳赚不赔的买卖中获利。

而且,就在中国政府试图控制一个资本流入渠道的同时,他们又开辟了另外一条渠道。为了满足北京奥运会期间海外游客的消费需求,国家外汇管理局还放松对了海外游客来华兑换人民币的限制。

根据规定,7月8日至10月17日期间,境外游客每人可兑换不超过5万美元的人民币。相比之下,在中国的外国居民通常每年的购汇总额上限为5万美元。

Andrew Batson

 

  本文网址:
http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20080704/bch085218.asp?source=channel
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China Moves To Stem Influx Of 'Hot Money'

 
2008年07月04日08:49
 
 
CHINA IS TOUGHENING the enforcement of its capital controls, seeking to stem the surging fund inflows that are complicating the government's fight against inflation. But a planned system for monitoring funds brought in by exporters will create a heavy administrative burden and might end up shifting inflows to other channels.

The State Administration of Foreign Exchange said exporters now must park their revenue from overseas sales in a special bank account for auditing before they exchange it into local currency. The new system, which will take effect July 14, will verify that the invoices match up with genuine transactions and aren't being inflated to bring additional foreign currency into China.

The measures, announced late Wednesday, come amid a climate of official concern over inflows of so-called hot money. China's foreign-exchange reserves grew by $74.5 billion in April and $40.3 billion in May, reaching a total of $1.797 trillion. With the Chinese currency appreciating against the U.S. dollar and expected to continue doing so for the foreseeable future, many economists believe those inflows are being swelled by speculators seeking to profit from the currency gains.

While capital controls severely restrict most standard channels for portfolio investment in China from abroad, trade flows are extremely large and less strictly monitored. Economists have long believed that many exporters pad legitimate transactions to move money in and out of the country.

This troubles authorities because large inflows of foreign exchange increase the amount of cash in the local banking system, adding to inflationary pressures at a time when prices are rising by more than 7% annually. But the size of the trade flows poses a challenge to supervision.

'The new policy may sound ideal, but its implementation will be difficult,' Sherman Chan of Moody's Economy.com wrote in a report Thursday, noting that detailed checking of China's huge volume of foreign trade will require a massive expenditure of time and effort by the government. China is the world's second-largest merchandise exporter, shipping $1.218 trillion of goods last year.

With the yuan still generally considered substantially undervalued and steadily rising, the incentive to bring foreign currency into China hasn't been changed. 'It is just a Band-Aid approach,' Ms. Chan said. 'Speculative capital will continue to find ways to take advantage of this sure bet if the government is leaving the currency regime unchanged.'

And even as authorities try to clamp down on one source of fund inflows, they are opening up another. To accommodate tourist spending during the Olympic Games in August, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange is also relaxing limits on the currency that foreign tourists in China can convert into yuan.

Individual tourists will be able to convert up to $50,000 each in the period from July 8 through Oct. 17. By comparison, foreign residents in China are usually permitted to convert a maximum of $50,000 to local currency over the course of a year.

Andrew Batson

 

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http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20080704/bch085218.asp?source=channel
 
 
外管局针对汹涌“热钱”进行一系列相关检查
 
内容包括正在进行的对企业外汇资本金结汇的全国性大检查、已经完成的对贸易项下资金异动的大检查等

  【《财经网》专稿/记者 温秀】国家外管局(下称外管局)日前正在针对“热钱”采取一系列引人注目的行动。
  这包括正在进行的对企业外汇资本金结汇的全国性大检查,以及已经完成的对贸易项下的资金异动的大检查等。前者是上半年开展的异常跨境资金流入大检查的一个重要内容。
  外管局有关官员告诉《财经》记者,希望上述举措能降低“热钱”的威胁。
  外管局对外汇资本金结汇管理在过去几年间呈放开-规范-收紧之势。在2002年尚处于试点阶段时,北京市有关规定宣布试点银行可直接核准单笔等值 100万美元以下的资本金结汇业务。2002年6月,外管局宣布改革外商投资项下资本金结汇管理方式,改变了当时外商投资项下资本金结汇由外管局各分支局、外汇管理部逐笔审批,银行凭外汇局核准件办理的管理方式,实行外商投资项下资本金结汇授权外汇指定银行直接审核办理。
  2003年3月,外管局又发布了《关于完善外商直接投资外汇管理工作有关问题的通知》,明确了对外商收购境内企业股权的登记管理原则和具体操作方案,以确保并购领域外资流入的真实性与合规性;明确了非投资性外商投资企业境内投资、外资比例低于25%的外商投资企业的外汇管理原则,配合外经贸部等部门有关政策的调整。
  2004年外管局曾发布《关于改进外商投资企业资本项目结汇审核与外债登记管理的通知》,主要内容包括:一是实行“支付结汇制度”,对一次结汇金额在 20万美元以上的,要求企业提供有关结汇资金用途的书面支付命令;二是严格执行外资企业举借外债的管理政策,将外资企业举借的中长期外债累计发生额和短期外债余额之和,严格控制在审批部门批准的项目投资总额和注册资本之间的差额以内。
  近年来,受人民币升值预期的影响,中国外商投资企业资本金结汇额增速强劲,资本金“到位即结汇”、大额资本金“化整为零”分次结汇逃避监管的现象都很突出。此次外汇资本金大检查后将推出何种规范之措、是否建立联网系统等都需拭目以待。
  另外,监管机关有关人士对《财经》记者表示,由于外管局和海关总署各自对于出口收结汇的数据一直存在较大差异,“热钱”往往通过货物贸易的变相手段流入境内。
  因此,在对贸易项下的资金异动的大检查完成后,外管局联合其他部门推出了“出口收结汇联网核查系统”,旨在严控企业虚假贸易结汇。
  外管局、商务部、海关总署7月2日晚联合颁布了《出口收结汇联网核查办法》。办法出台后,外管局有关负责人对《财经》记者表示,加强预收货款与未来实际出口的跟踪监管,可防止无真实贸易背景的资金借用贸易渠道流入境内投机获利。但几个部门联合推出的核查办法设定了一个过渡期,目前外管局的一项重要工作就是把办法尽量落实。
  但上述新规出台后,一些企业和分析人士表示,此举的震摄意义大于实际意义,新的资本管制能否限制非法资本流动,仍存疑问。英国《金融时报》援引北京一位出口商的说法称,仅靠检查呈递海关的文件,不会暴露出夸大的收据。检查人员需要检查货物本身的实际价值,来证明欺诈是否存在。
  对于坊间的疑问,国家外管局负责该政策制定的有关人士拒绝置评。■

《财经网》既往相关报道:
“热钱”之忧
三部委联网核查“热钱”
外管局出招“摸底”国际收支 
国家外管局定规核查出口收结汇

 
 
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热钱困扰中国政府

 
2008年07月09日11:42
 
 
Lawrence J. Brainard

 
们可以越来越清楚地看到,中国的通货膨胀问题总的来说是一种货币现象,而非仅仅是几种主要食品价格的临时性上涨。但人们对于应如何解决这个货币问题却仍是众说纷纭。中国政府上周决定以行政手段来抑制投机性“热钱”的流入,这说明决策者仍认为──或只是希望──加强监管就能够取得成效。但这可能会是一个代价不菲的错误。

让我们看看决策者所面临问题的严重程度。今年以来中国每个月的消费者价格指数都没低于过7.1%。这虽然一定程度上可归因于猪肉等食品的供应短缺,但根本问题却是太多的钱流入到经济领域,追逐太少的资产。其中一个指标是中国最近一直在以每月750亿美元这一令人吃惊的速度增持海外资产。

尽管这里面有贸易顺差的自然结果,但其中很大一部分是热钱掀起的波澜。据估计,今年前五个月,除了780亿美元的贸易顺差外,还有1,500亿至1,700亿美元的热钱进入到中国。

搞清楚这些热钱躲过资本控制闸门进入中国的原因和方式对了解哪些政策对减缓热钱流入有效,哪些政策不会有效果至关重要。

事情始于去年10月份以来美元与人民币利率差的逆转。美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve)不断减息,而中国央行为了遏止通胀则在上调利率。目前,中国央行一年期债券的利率已经比同期美国国债高出约170个基点。

这带来了套利的机会,本地企业大规模借入低成本的美元,替代利率较高的人民币投在国内。推动这种套利的第二个因素是人们普遍预计政府将加快人民币升值步伐,或是对人民币币值进行一次性重估。

这类贷款可以从国内外币贷款的大幅增加中找到证据。在截至5月份的12个月中,此类贷款增加了近1,000亿美元,目前为2,740亿美元,一年时间增长了55%,高于上一年12%的增幅。这类贷款通常会兑换为人民币用于在本地的营运资本和投资。这表明当地银行正在筹集美元以发放此类贷款。至少就目前而言,他们的这一做法还没有遇到问题。

与此同时,中国公司正在银行中囤积人民币。非金融企业在银行中的存款持续增长,尽管实际利率达到了-4%,而且央行在去年底对银行贷款实行了严格的限制。这些因素通常被认为会导致国内企业约为2.9万亿美元的银行存款出现下降。实际上,1月份时也的确出现了暂时的下降,但这种情况很快就发生了逆转。今年前5个月,企业存款折合成年率创出了23.3%的历史增长纪录,而去年的增幅为20%。

 

这种人民币融资套利交易的规模有多大?中国企业会遇到很多愿意在国内外向它们提供低成本美元贷款的银行,因此这种套利的金额会很大。而且有许多独特的渠道可以让这些资金进入国内。这种流入的渠道五花八门,比如,据报导铜锭就被用作资金转移的工具,在伦敦金属交易所以美元购买铜锭后再在上海以人民币卖出。这种创意能发挥到何种程度取决于政府打击这类活动的能力。

这种打击目前还在进行之中。上周三,中国国家外汇管理局推出了新的举措,加强对企业出口预收货款和进口延期付款的管理。这两种办法都是通过短期外债来增加企业的国内资产。

尽管果断加强资本控制会减缓热钱的流入,但这一措施却无法彻底阻止热钱。虽然目前对资本流入采取了不少控制手段,但热钱仍在轻松地继续大量涌入。包括上周的措施在内,任何未来的控制手段还会以失败告终,因为在中国这样一个部分开放的金融体系内,市场终将会找到绕过这些手段的办法。比如在铜锭、预收货款或其它资本流入通道的案例中,政府不可能在不切断这些供应的基础上分清投机与实际购买之间的区别。

如果企业的活动是热钱流入的主要推动力,那么央行想通过加息或调整存款准备金率等传统杠杆控制金融泡沫就是一个不可能完成的任务。由于担心会吸引更多的热钱,加息选择已经被排除在外。这迫使央行只能依赖例行上调银行存款准备金率,大力吸纳流入的外汇,以控制流动性。此种举措导致银行的资产负债表中充斥了大量低收益率票据,其效力也日益降低。这些政策的全部结果就是推高了国内借贷的成本,进而增加了企业进一步从海外借贷的动力。

行政手段无法解决这一问题,尽管它们可能会推迟做出判断的日期。如果人民币升值幅度加大,比如达到10%,那么这些热钱带回它们国内的将是1.5-2%左右的套利,外加人民币升值带来的收益。无疑热钱的流入在爆炸性增长。这种单向式的资金流动将一直持续到人民币大幅重估或Fed上调利率,导致息差减小后为止。

这种冒险做法传递了一个非常简单的讯息。尽管中国的外汇政策促进了中国与全球贸易活动的融合,但却未能为中国融入全球资本市场提供恰当的框架。对这个问题,中国需要有更好的解决方案,而非一再使用行政控制手段。

(编者按:本文作者是研究服务机构Trusted Sources的首席经济学家。)

 

延伸阅读

 

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中国热钱数字之谜

 
2008年07月11日10:58
 

 

 
近中国经济观察家对热钱流入的讨论非常热烈。一个小小的疑惑是:所涉及的数据令人有雾里看花之感。中国共有1.797万亿美元的外汇储备,这个数字还在以每天10亿美元的速度增长。但要想找出这种增长的途径和原因却越来越令分析师感到头痛。一旦你准备仔细剖析这些数据,很快就会发现中国的统计体制并未跟上其国际经济地位快速提升的步伐。

政策制定者目前的问题是,有多少流入中国的外汇属于“正常”范畴,即贸易盈余和外商投资,又有多少是可能快速撤离的投机性资金?估算投机资金流入量的最常见方法是获得每月的外汇储备增加额,然后减去贸易顺差和海外直接投资的流入。这种计算方法非常简单,也能带来一些令人警惕的结果:在4月份744.8亿美元的新增外汇储备中,居然有502亿美元显示为无法解释的“热钱”。

 
 
位于北京的国际金融研究中心(Research Center for International Finance)最近在一份报告中指出,这种方法存在两个问题。其一是它假定贸易和海外直接投资中不存在热钱流入,而实际上以这类交易作幌子是逃避控制,将资金带入国内的主要方式之一。它还忽略了除实物贸易外以其他合法方式流入中国的资金,如每年数百亿美元的服务贸易出口额,以及海外华人的汇款和外国人的普通投资交易,因而会对热钱估计过高。

因此为各大银行和研究机构关注中国的经济学家开始做起了中国政府统计人员的工作,想方设法估计其他的这些交易,以更好了解资金流的实际趋势。其他棘手的问题包括估计外汇走势对储备额价值的变化有何影响。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)中国经济学家王庆估计,在今年1至5月2,690亿美元的新增外汇储备中,真正的热钱约为510亿美元。这个数字不算小,但与用简单减法得出的1,480亿美元热钱则相差甚多。

这种剖析外汇储备增加额的游戏因为缺乏央行计算方法的确切信息而变得更为困难了。比如,瑞银(UBS)经济学家乔纳森•安德森(Jonathan Anderson)表示,储备额的增长主要来源于今年初债券价格的反弹。问题是,其他经济学家认为中国央行实际上并未根据市场价格计算其投资组合的价值。

一些经济学家认为,外汇储备增加额的一部分源于庞大债券投资组合不断增加的利息收入。这其中也存在一个问题:有经济学家认为央行将利息收入交给了财政部,而没有进行再投资。在这两种情况下,央行的实际做法都不是公开信息。

如果研究一下央行同商业银行的外汇互换交易,或是央行将资金转到主权财富基金中投公司(China Investment Corp.)的做法,那人们就会变得更加困惑。资金的发生额动辄达到数百亿美元,但其流动方式却只能靠猜。

Andrew Batson


相关阅读
热钱困扰中国政府 2008-07-09
中国加强资本管制以遏制热钱流入 2008-07-04
周小川:一直在密切监测热钱流入 2008-05-06
中国央行瞄准热钱 但目标识别有难度 2008-03-10

 

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Does China have too much hot money or too few statistics?

 
2008年07月11日10:58
 
 

 

The buzz about hot money, or speculative capital inflows, has been nearly deafening among China economy watchers lately. Small wonder: the sums involved are stunning. China has $1.797 trillion in foreign exchange reserves, a total that is rising by more than a billion dollars every single day. But trying to account for how and why that increase is occurring has increasingly become a headache for analysts. Once you start trying to dissect the numbers, it quickly becomes clear that China's statistical system just hasn't kept up with its rapid rise in global economic importance.

The question now occupying policymakers is how much of the foreign exchange pouring into China is 'normal,' from long-term trade and investment, and how much represents speculative investments that could just as quickly exit. The most common way to estimate speculative inflows is to take the month's increase in foreign reserves, then subtract the trade surplus and inflows of foreign direct investment. This calculation is simple enough, and provides some alarming results: of the $74.48 billion increase in reserves in April, most of it, some $50.20 billion, shows up as unexplained 'hot money.'

As a recent report (in Chinese) by the Research Center for International Finance in Beijing points out, this method has two main problems. For one, it presumes that there are no speculative inflows in trade and FDI, when in fact padding these transactions is one of the main ways of evading controls on bringing money into the country. It also overestimates 'hot money' by ignoring all manner of perfectly legitimate inflows into China. There is a multibillion-dollar trade in services, in addition to the trade in physical goods that's reflected in the surplus figure, not to mention remittances by Chinese abroad and regular investment transactions by foreigners. Unfortunately, there's no regular data on these.

So the economists who watch China for major banks and research outfits end up doing the Chinese government statisticians' work for them, coming up with elaborate ways of estimating these other transactions in order to get a better read on the real trend in inflows. Other tricks include estimating how much currency movements contribute to the change in the value of the reserves. Wang Qing, China economist for Morgan Stanley, estimates that true speculative capital made up $51 billion of the $269 billion increase in reserves through May this year - not small, but nowhere near the $148 billion you would get from the simple subtraction method.

But this game of dissecting the increase in foreign reserves is made difficult by the lack of solid information on how the central bank keeps it books. For instance, UBS economist Jonathan Anderson has argued that a large portion of the reported increase in the value of the reserves can be accounted for by the rally in bond prices early this year. The problem: other economists believe that the People's Bank of China does not in fact mark its portfolio holdings to market.

Another way some economists account for a portion of the reserve gains is the increase in interest income from an ever-larger portfolio of bonds. There's a problem here too: other economists believe that the central bank hands interest payments over to the Ministry of Finance, rather than reinvesting them. In both cases, the central bank's actual practice is not public information.

And if you want to get even more confused, try accounting for the central bank's foreign-exchange swap transactions with commercial banks, or its transfer of funds to the China Investment Corp., the sovereign wealth fund. Tens of billions of dollars are at stake, but exactly how those funds were moved can only be guessed at.

Andrew Batson

 

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