国际货币基金组织(IMF)昨日表示，粮食和石油价格上涨可能“严重削弱”多达75个发展中国家的经济，包括巴基斯坦和印尼。这是IMF首次对这场危机作出广泛的估计。

IMF总裁多米尼克•斯特劳斯-卡恩(Dominique Strauss-Kahn)警告称，由于粮食和石油价格持续上涨的双重冲击，一些国家正处于“危险关头”。

他表示，如果农业大宗商品价格继续上涨，那么即使石油价格保持稳定，“一些政府将无法继续让国民吃饱，同时保持经济的稳定”。

上述警告是一个信号，表明政策制定者正日益担忧粮食和燃油危机的影响，不仅是出于人道主义层面，也担忧经济和政治稳定将受到波及。这个问题将成为本月G8峰会的重要议题。

在评估大宗商品危机的影响时，IMF警告称，如果“价格长久处于或高于当前水平，将对许多国家的国际收支构成重大压力。”

IMF对国际收支的关切是一个转变。以往的焦点都是放在通胀和财政收支上，后两者被认为比较好应对。

直至最近，粮食和燃油价格的持续上涨并未导致出口收入相对于进口支出出现巨大缺口。但IMF昨日表示：“最近的价格上涨正对国际收支产生更大的影响。”

自1997-1998年以来，从未出现过多个国家陷入国际收支危机的情形。斯特劳斯-卡恩表示，为继续满足国内粮食需要，一些国家面临必须耗尽外汇储备的压力。

IMF估计，从2007年1月至2008年4月期间，粮食和石油价格上涨对贫穷进口国国际收支的负面影响可能超过371亿美元，占这些国家国内生产总值(GDP)的2.7%。

IMF表示，亚洲、前苏联国家、撒哈拉以南非洲以及中美洲国家所受冲击最大。该组织已对需要援助的国家启动了快速资助，并将其对布基纳法索、吉尔吉斯斯坦、马里、尼日尔和贝宁等国的资助加倍。目前它还在与另外11个国家洽谈。

IMF表示：“近期价格大幅上涨……可能对许多中低收入国家的宏观经济稳定构成风险。”

今年上半年，受石油和粮食价格迭创新高的推动，大宗商品价格猛涨逾30%。

IMF表示：“全球经济正面临自70年代初以来最广泛、最猛烈的大宗商品价格上涨行情。”IMF政策发展部副主管马克•普朗特(Mark Plant)警告称：“价格将维持高企。”

大豆价格昨日飙升至每蒲式耳16.20 1/4美元的历史新高，自1月至今上涨了45%左右。大豆是某些国家食用油和蛋白质的主要来源之一。

一些国家已经采取措施，扩大燃油和粮食补贴，或者削减农产品进口关税。这些措施有可能减轻国民所受的影响，但要牺牲本就不多的财政资源。

译者/岱嵩

The rise in food and oil prices could “severely weaken” the economies of up to 75 developing countries, including Pakistan and Indonesia, the International Monetary Fund yesterday said in its first broad assessment of the crisis.

Dominique Strauss-Kahn, IMF managing-director, warned that some countries were now at “a tipping point” because of the double impact of rising food and oil prices.

He said that if agricultural commodities prices continued to rise, even if oil prices remained stable, “some governments will no longer be able to feed their people and at the same time maintain stability in their economies”.

The warning is a sign that policymakers are increasingly concerned about the impact of the food and fuel crisis, not just in humanitarian terms but also its effect on economic and political stability. The problem will be high on the agenda at the G8 summit this month.

In its assessment of the impact of the commodities crisis, the IMF warned that “a prolonged period with prices around or above current levels will place serious strains on the balance of payments of many countries”.

Its concern over balance of payments is a change from the focus on inflation and fiscal balances, both considered more manageable.

Until recently, the escalation in food and fuel prices had not sparked a significant shortfall in export incomes relative to imports but the IMF yesterday said: “The most recent increases are having larger balance of payments effects.”

The world has not witnessed a multiple-country balance of payments' crisis since 1997-1998. Mr Strauss-Kahn said some countries faced having to deplete currency reserves to continue feeding their population.

The IMF estimates that the adverse balance of payments impact of rising prices between January 2007 and April 2008 for poor importing countries could exceed $37.1bn – 2.7 per cent of the countries' annual gross domestic product.

Countries in Asia, the former Soviet Union, sub- Saharan Africa and central America have been hardest hit, it said. The multilateral organisation has already fast-tracked funding to countries in need and had doubled funding to Burkina Faso, Kyrgyzstan, Mali, Niger and Benin. It was also in talks with 11 others nations.

“The recent sharp increases in prices . . . could pose risks to macroeconomic stability in a number of low and middle-income countries,” it said.

The IMF's warning came as commodity prices surged more than 30 per cent in the first half of the year, boosted by record oil and food costs.

“The global economy is in the midst of the broadest and most buoyant commodity price boom since the early 1970s,” the body said. Mark Plant, deputy director of IMF policy development, warned: “High prices are here to stay.”

The price of soyabean – a key source of oil and proteins for some countries – yesterday surged to a fresh high of $16.20? a bushel, an increase of about 45 per cent since January.

Countries that have responded by extending fuel and food subsidies or cutting agricultural commodities import tariffs might mitigate the impact on their population, but at the expense of scarce fiscal resources.